A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
